Global economic growth to ease to 2.9 pct this year, inflation and war in Ukraine to weigh down activities

China and India will account for half of economic growth this year, said IMF’s Chief Economist Pierre Olivier

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 31 – Global economic growth this year is projected to ease to 2.9 percent this year from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022, before rising to 3.1 percent in 2024, according to the World Economic Outlook.

The WEO released in Singapore and Washington at a press conference simultaneously today, said the figure was higher than predicted in the October 2022 but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.

The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.

Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent.

The following table from IMF provides the 2022 economic growth estimate and projections for 2023/2024 for individual countries and region: