BUENOS AIRES, Nov 6 (Bernama-Sputnik/RIA Novosti) — Brazilian coffee prices may rise in 2027 as a powerful El Nino threatens to bring heavy rainfall to some coffee-growing regions and drought to others, affecting bean yields and quality, a professor at the State University of Londrina said, reported Sputnik/RIA Novosti.
According to a forecast by the Brazilian National Centre for Monitoring and Prevention of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), El Nino may persist until at least the first quarter of 2027, reaching very high intensity between November and January.
This climatic phenomenon could significantly alter rainfall patterns and temperatures across different parts of Brazil.
“El Nino can be a critical factor for both yield and quality. The period from October to February is expected to bring heavy rainfall, coinciding with flowering in some Arabica-growing areas (Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo), as well as a serious shortage of precipitation in northern Espirito Santo and southern Bahia.
“This could reduce reservoir levels used for irrigation during the months when Canephora fruits are filling out. Thus, there is a possibility of lower quality and reduced production, which could lead to higher prices,” Marta de Toledo Benassi said.
Climate change is already posing long-term risks to Brazil’s coffee industry.
Rising temperatures could make some areas traditionally used to grow Arabica unsuitable for its cultivation in the future, the expert added.
Benassi said expanding Robusta cultivation, as it tolerates heat better and offers higher yields, was one possible solution.
However, this coffee variety is not immune to climate threats, as it is also sensitive to drought and depends on irrigation in some regions.
At the same time, Benassi stressed that Brazil traditionally strives to ensure stable international trade and fulfil its export obligations.
— BERNAMA-SPUTNIK/RIA NOVOSTI