(Image courtesy of United Nations FB)
By Dr Mohd Safar Hasim
If Western abstainers vote yes, they will amplify the legitimacy of Palestine’s UN bid — reinforcing the majority and reshaping the diplomatic narrative
As the 80th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA80) unfolds from Sept 9 to 30, 2025, and with the High-Level General Debate running from Sept 23 to 29, 2025, the question of Palestine’s full membership once again commands global attention.
The outcome in the Assembly itself is not in doubt: the two-thirds majority is already secured. What remains is whether key Western abstainers will shift to support — and in doing so, amplify the legitimacy of Palestine’s bid and reshape the diplomatic narrative.
On Sept 9, 2025, France and Saudi Arabia tabled the New York Declaration, laying out a roadmap for Palestinian statehood, governance reform, and the exclusion of Hamas from future administrative structures.
On Sept 12, three days before the UNGA vote, Britain, Canada, and Australia announced their recognition of Palestine. They represented the first significant break within the Western bloc, signalling that support for Palestinian membership was no longer confined to the Global South. Their decision added diplomatic weight to the resolution and widened the breach in what had long been a wall of Western caution.
The Sequence: Security Council First, Then UNGA
Under Article 4 of the UN Charter, the process is clear:
1. Security Council: A membership bid must first be recommended by the Council, requiring at least nine9 votes in favour and no veto from any of the five permanent members.
2. General Assembly: Only then does the matter move to the Assembly, where a two-thirds majority is needed.
This means the Security Council is the gatekeeper. Without its recommendation, the General Assembly cannot legally admit a new member, no matter how overwhelming the support.
The US Record of Opposition
Here lies the obstacle. The United States has consistently voted against Palestine-related resolutions, including those on recognition, rights, and especially full UN membership. On April 18, 2024, the US cast the sole veto against Palestine’s admission to the UN, despite 12 members voting in favour and only two abstaining — the United Kingdom and Switzerland.
A Shift Among Western Abstainers
What makes the Sept 12, 2025 vote remarkable is that several Western states that once abstained are now moving closer to the majority. Switzerland, for example, shifted from abstaining in 2024 to supporting the France–Saudi resolution. Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, and others remain cautious, but the momentum is clear: the fence-sitters are no longer static.
This evolution underscores how even traditionally cautious, legalistic states can be persuaded when the resolution is framed around governance reform, disarmament, and international stabilisation.
It is precisely this bloc — the abstainers — that could elevate the vote from numerical success to diplomatic consensus.
The Power of Numbers — and Symbolism
The UN General Assembly has 193 member states, meaning a two-thirds majority requires 129 affirmative votes. In May 2024, a resolution affirming Palestine’s eligibility for membership received 143 votes in favour, with nine against and 25 abstentions. The 12 September 2025 vote on the New York Declaration saw 142 votes in favour, 10 against, and 12 abstentions.
The numbers are already there — the two-thirds threshold has been comfortably surpassed. But if
Western abstainers like Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, and Austria shift to support, they will not only reinforce the majority but also amplify the legitimacy of Palestine’s UN bid, signalling that its recognition is no longer a Global South initiative — it is becoming a transregional consensus.
Who Will Move the Proposal in the Security Council?
On April 18, 2024, Algeria tabled the membership resolution. In the current session, it is expected that Algeria or another Global South member — such as Pakistan, Sierra Leone, or Guyana — will again take the lead in moving the proposal. France, as a permanent member, may cosponsor but is unlikely to be the formal mover.
Current Non-Permanent Members of the UN Security Council
* Africa: Algeria, Sierra Leone, Somalia
* Asia-Pacific: Pakistan, Republic of Korea
* Western Europe & Others: Denmark, Greece
* Eastern Europe: Slovenia
* Latin America: Caribbean: Guyana, Panama
Two Possible Scenarios
1. If the US Abstains
* With nine votes in favour, the Council would recommend Palestine’s admission.
* The General Assembly, where Britain, Canada, Australia, France, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, ASEAN, and the Global South form the overwhelming majority, would almost certainly approve.
* This would mark a historic breakthrough: the veto barrier would fall, and Palestine would finally take its seat as a full UN member.
2. If the US Vetoes Again
* Even with overwhelming UNGA support, the bid would be blocked.
* The veto would once again expose the structural imbalance of the UN system, where the will of 140+ nations can be silenced by one.
* For Malaysia and ASEAN, it would reinforce their longstanding critique: that UN reform is urgent if the institution is to retain credibility.
The General Assembly has already spoken with clarity. France and Saudi Arabia have shown leadership, Britain, Canada, and Australia have broken ranks to recognise Palestine, and Western
abstainers are beginning to shift from abstain to support. The decisive question is whether the United States will continue to isolate itself with a veto, or whether it will step aside and allow history to move forward.
For Malaysia and ASEAN, the path remains clear: stand with the majority, amplify the moral weight of the UNGA, and remind the world that silence or abstention is no longer neutrality — it is complicity in paralysis.
WE
[The views expressed here are entirely those of Dr Mohd Safar Hashim, Council Member of the Malaysian Press Institute (MPI)]