By Ravi VS
In many of my discussions on strategy today, I notice a recurring mistake: people are treating trends as if they were signals.
The distinction may sound subtle, but in foresight work it makes all the difference between staying ahead of the curve and chasing after it.
Signals: Early Indicators of Change
Signals are the faint whispers of the future. They are weak, often fragmented, and rarely recognized as important at first. A signal might appear as:
A small startup experimenting in a niche space.
A lone academic paper pushing a radical idea.
A behavioural change among a small community that doesn’t yet appear in the mainstream.
Signals are uncertain and ambiguous, but that is exactly where their value lies. They give us a chance to anticipate what might unfold long before it becomes obvious.
Trends: Aggregated and Mainstream
Trends, on the other hand, are patterns that have already formed. They are visible, measurable, and often backed by data. Once a trend is identified in market reports or highlighted in the media, it has already gained momentum.
Trends matter because they shape today’s context — but they are not early warnings. They tell us what is happening now, not what could be emerging tomorrow.
Why the Confusion Matters
When leaders rely on trends as if they were signals, they are already late to the game. By the time something is called a “trend,” competitors and the market are well aware of it. Using trends as signals is reactive, not anticipatory.
True foresight is about training ourselves to notice the ripples before they become waves. It’s about asking: What weak signals today could grow into tomorrow’s dominant trend — and what do they mean for us now?
A Call to Leaders
If you want to build a future-ready organisation, stop chasing yesterday’s trends. Instead, invest in cultivating the capability to detect, interpret, and act on signals.
This shift requires curiosity, discipline, and the courage to act before certainty arrives. Because by the time the “trend” is obvious, the strategic window to shape it has already closed.
(The views expressed here are entirely those of the writer)
WE