By Harris Hakim
For the past few years, residents across Southeast Asia have enjoyed a rare luxury: clear, blue skies.
Persistent wet weather patterns kept the region’s infamous seasonal transboundary haze largely at bay. But according to a sobering new assessment, that period of grace is officially over.
The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) recently issued a rare “Red Warning” — the highest risk rating in its annual Haze Outlook.
As Simon Tay, Chairman of the SIIA, noted in a recent interview on Astro AWANI’s Consider This, the warning serves as an urgent wake-up call for governments, corporations, and citizens to shake off “blue sky syndrome” and recognise that Southeast Asia is facing its highest risk of a severe transboundary haze crisis in years.
This marks only the second Red Warning issued since the SIIA launched its annual report in 2019, following a similar warning during the dry spell of 2023.
Tay emphasises that the impending crisis of 2026 is a multi-layered equation combining extreme climate shifts, corporate supply chains, and global geopolitical tensions.
1. The Weather Perfect Storm: Climate Confluence
The foundational trigger for the 2026 Red Warning is what some commentators, including Simon Tay, have described as a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño. This recurring climate pattern brings severe drought and high temperatures to Southeast Asia.
However, Tay points out that El Niño is no longer acting alone.
It is sitting directly on top of a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the broader baseline of global climate change. This dual meteorological phenomenon creates a ‘double stress’ where the dry season stretches longer, desiccating peatlands and turning agricultural landscapes into tinderboxes. The peak danger period is expected between August and September.
2. The Progress: A Decade of Better Rules
If there is a reason for optimism, it is that Southeast Asia is far better equipped to handle a dry spell today than it was during the catastrophic haze years of 1997 or 2015. Tay highlights that over the last decade, structural improvements have fundamentally altered the landscape of accountability:
Corporate Evolution: Major multinational plantation companies have heavily invested in internal firefighting teams, local community prevention programmes, and strict ‘no-burn’ policies. Many are now bound by green finance loans, meaning environmental damage may trigger financial consequences through lending arrangements.
Political Accountability: In Indonesia, a precedent of political consequences has been established. Under previous leadership, local officials and police chiefs faced termination if fires broke out under their watch and went unmanaged. Tay notes that the current administration under President Prabowo Subianto faces an early test of whether Indonesia’s strengthened institutions and state-linked investment priorities can reinforce fire prevention.
ASEAN Infrastructure: Regional cooperation has evolved beyond mere dialogue. Data from the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre in Singapore provides sophisticated, real-time hotspot tracking, while a new transboundary haze coordination centre has been established in Jakarta to help translate that data into faster field action.
3. The Gaps: Where the System Could Fail
Despite these advancements, critical vulnerabilities remain. Tay warns that if the region chokes on smoke during the crucial dry season, it will likely be due to three major blind spots:
The Transparency Gap
While large publicly listed corporations are under intense ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) scrutiny, Tay raises concerns about the rest of the supply chain. Mid-tier national companies and large numbers of independent smallholder farmers operate with far less transparency. For major buyers, ensuring genuine traceability and helping smaller suppliers manage land without fire remains an immense logistical challenge.
The Fiscal Squeeze
Active firefighting — especially aerial water-bombing and cloud seeding — is expensive. Tay points out that with global and local economies facing tight budgetary constraints, fiscal pressures could slow the rapid response needed when fires first emerge.
The Global Energy Vector
In an unexpected twist, global geopolitics are actively influencing land-use risks in Southeast Asia. Disruptions in transit corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz have sent shockwaves through agricultural sectors, causing sharp increases in fertiliser and fuel prices.
While growers in cash-rich industries such as palm oil can temporarily absorb these costs, smaller fruit and vegetable farmers face a much greater financial squeeze. This economic pressure may incentivise some operators to use fire — the cheapest available method — to clear land and dispose of agricultural waste. At the same time, global energy uncertainty has increased regional demand for biofuels, creating additional pressure to expand plantations.
The Verdict: Prevention Over Reaction
The core takeaway of the SIIA’s 2026 outlook is clear: haze cannot be reliably solved once it starts; it is best managed through early prevention.
As Tay emphasises, once fires become widespread, reactive measures such as cloud seeding and aerial water bombing become far less effective than preventing fires in the first place. Water deployed from the air may evaporate before reaching the ground or fail to penetrate deep-burning peat fires. Resources and political attention, therefore, need to be deployed before the peak dry season by targeting high-risk areas and enforcing preventive measures.
The impending dry season will be the ultimate test for the region’s strengthened institutions. If Southeast Asia can navigate the compounding environmental and economic pressures of 2026 without a repeat of previous severe haze episodes, it will demonstrate how stronger regional governance can help mitigate the impacts of increasingly volatile weather.
Harris Hakim is a Contributing Opinion Writer for the Weekly Echo
WE